Saturday, November 19, 2011

The letter the New York Review of Books didn't want you to read

I can't blame them for not publishing this: my letter is playing small ball on an otherwise insightful piece. Still, in reading this review I came to the realization that environmental economists are misguided in prescribing national energy taxes as a cure to the negative side effects of energy consumption - it's a global issue and individual nations acting on their own can't do much to fix it. p.s. I added some pictures at the bottom to depict the scenario I inadequately described in the second paragraph.


To the Editors:

Dr. Nordhaus introduces an important explanation of the global oil market with his bath tub analogy, but his ultimate policy proposal is unfortunately inconsistent with the analogy. He proposes that the US implement a tax on oil consumption to ensure that its full social cost is paid for by the consumer. However, the very insight his analogy provides is that the oil market is fully globalized; accordingly, an oil tax would need to be imposed on all oil consumers to be effective, not merely US oil consumers.

Consider the effect of a US-only oil tax. The cost of oil in the US increases, decreasing US oil consumption. But while the cost increase is localized, as the bath tub view notes the demand drop is felt globally, driving down the global price of oil. This in turn drives up non-US oil consumption and negates the positive environmental effects of the US oil tax. 

No matter where in the world energy is consumed, its environmental costs are felt globally.  Therefore, only a globally-coordinated response can effectively deal with the social costs of energy. Moreover, this is likely to be a more palatable approach for those concerned with putting the US at a competitive disadvantage to its trading partners.  Indeed, this could be the (all-too) rare case where political expediency and effective environmental policy coincide.



Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Want to really occupy Wall Street? Occupy the board room!


Below is my comment on Steven Davidoff's piece in today's New York Times, where he points out that weak oversight by MF Global's board of directors had a role in its spectacular demise. It's a good piece, but unfortunately he kind of phones in the ending, calling for more regulation and noting that "hard questions" need to be asked. 

Fortunately, some of the answers aren't so hard to come by: perhaps MF Global's board's oversight wasn't more rigorous because the board was chaired by Corzine himself.
It defies reason to expect a board to meaningfully oversee management on behalf of shareholders when they are effectively overseeing themselves. And yet if only this problem were limited to MF Global; however, the Corporate Library's research indicates that fully two-thirds of the S&P 500 have a board whose chair is also the CEO.
To Mr. Davidoff's call for regulation, readers should be forgiven if they are unenthusiastic about pinning their hopes on Congress. Still, shareholders could empower themselves if they could find a way to organize their interests. As it stands, it's surprising to me that we haven't yet seen much shareholder activism from organized labor, as their pension funds are among the biggest corporate investors going. To take the thought one step further, given the longstanding trend to 401k plans (which predominantly invest in mutual funds), index fund providers looking to differentiate themselves should start offering funds that will take more activist roles with their proxy votes. Given that Federal Reserve studies show that a majority of all US stock is owned either by pension funds or mutual funds, these vehicles have great potential as voices for shareholder interests.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

The letter The New York Times didn't want you to read

...presumably because their editorial standards wouldn't countenance it (and understandably so), but still I'm too lazy to let anything go to waste. Basically I was just trying to say that Livingston's argument couldn't survive the fact that he was confusing correlation for causation and effect for cause. Still, I appreciate his attempt to lend a new perspective; it's just that his has holes you can drive a truck through - and that's something both of our pieces seem to have in common.


To the Editor:

In "It's Consumer Spending, Stupid" (Op-ed, Oct. 26, 2011), James Livingston offers a provocative but ultimately confused take on our economic woes. Business investment's shrinking share of GDP is better understood as improvement over time to capital efficiency (compare the cost difference of launching Google or Facebook to earlier counterparts such as GE or Ford). Furthermore, elevated corporate cash balances were a reaction to, not a cause of, the bursting housing bubble and ensuing credit crunch.

His concerns about economic justice are admirable, but it’s counterproductive to pit profits against wages, as not only do they not stand in conflict (most companies cannot sustainably grow profits without increasing payroll), but pension funds and 401(k) plans are among the biggest shareholders. Indeed, while recent events have highlighted serious flaws in corporate governance, concerned citizens should look to their considerable collective power as owners, not workers or voters, to effect real change.  

Monday, October 10, 2011

blame game blues

From the very early days of the economic crisis up through this very moment, a considerable amount of energy has been put toward finding someone to take the blame.  While yes, there are some bad guys out there, there always were and always will be bad guys, and the core of the problem is systemic: weak regulation and screwed-up incentives did more damage than any criminal or unethical behavior.

If we're truly interested in preventing this from happening again, the scapegoating has to stop.  Not only is it a horribly destructive force (consider that the last great global economic crisis inspired its own desperate scapegoating that led to the bloodiest war in history), it's a cheap out in that it's easier to point a finger at someone else than to consider how our own behavior may have contributed to our problems.  In this case, I think our collective shortcomings were largely ideological, with major errors on both sides of the political aisle. So, I propose that we call off the dogs and instead focus our efforts on addressing three concerns:

1. Re-regulating the financial system: The key principle to appreciating the importance of regulating the financial services industry more than others is that in capitalist societies, the financial system acts as a crucial utility and thus should be regulated in a manner similar to how we regulate other utilities, such as the electrical power industry (i.e., heavily, rendering it decidedly boring).  This was a lesson we learned in the Great Depression but somehow collectively un-learned in recent decades, and did so in a bi-partisan fashion.  While deregulation is a central cause of the Libertarian movement, in fact it was Jimmy Carter who kicked off the whole deregulatory hootenany with the airline industry in 1978, and the Clinton administration played a singular role in deregulating the financial services industry (namely, with the repeal of the Depression-era Glass-Steagall act and in deliberately choosing to not let regulations keep pace with the "innovation" occurring in the derivatives markets).  I think Dodd-Frank was a good first step but more needs to be done to address the global nature of our financial system.  This is not an easy lift by any means, but in the long run we will need much more coordination among global regulators in order to properly oversee things, and the difficulty of the task only demands that more effort be put toward it.

2. Correcting the incentives in our tax system: Supply-side economic theory is based on the observation that, all things being equal, increasing supply does more to improve social welfare than increasing demand does because, while both make more goods available to more people, increasing demand is eventually counterproductive because it is inflationary.  It further contends that the most efficient way to increase supply is to lower the costs of production.  I have no qualms with this insight and accept it as a given.  My complaint is with the manner in which it has been applied.  To put it plainly, the entire idea of a "trickle down" effect of disproportionately lowering taxes for the wealthy is downright stupid.  The argument you hear for subsidizing rich people, repeated as recently as last year by the GOP during the debate over extending the Bush tax cuts, is that much of the income in question is actually business income generated by sole proprietorships.  However, the data indicates otherwise.  Still, regardless of how you interpret the data, it's hard to argue that if your aim is to lower the costs of production for companies it wouldn't be vastly more efficient to lower corporate taxes than personal taxes. Hell, I would consider eliminating corporate taxes entirely, but that's an argument for another day.  In any event, it wouldn't be too hard to offset the hit to government revenue with a combination of increases in taxes on rich people and on the dividends corporations pay their shareholders (and in a paragraph I'll show you data suggesting that taxes on dividends are highly progressive, as regular working stiffs tend to hold their stock via pension funds and other tax-deferred retirement accounts).  I believe this would also have all sorts of positive side effects I'll get into another time.  Also, bolder people like the great Robert H Frank (perhaps the most insightful economist alive) have even better ideas.

3. Improving corporate governance: The first two items were mainly about reversing two significant, multi-decade economic policy trends, but this one is about fixing something that, like a drought exposing rocks that were previously lurking under the pond surface, relates to design defects that were always there but were made much more dangerous by the regulatory and tax changes.  Improving corporate governance doesn't need to be a partisan fight, but there is (almost literally) all the money in the world stacked up against it, which probably makes it more difficult to make progress on than even the most intractable political squabble.  Nevertheless, it doesn't take a policy wonk to look at the cases of Lehman Bros., Bear Stearns, and the like and note that flaws in compensation and management systems inadvertently encouraged excessive risk-taking that proved harmful to shareholders and, ultimately, because these firms acted as crucial utilities, the harm spread to taxpayers.  The board of directors is supposed to be beholden to shareholders but the system is rife with "you be on my board and I'll be on your board" cronyism.  Meanwhile, the rules are written in such a way that it's very difficult for shareholders to have a meaningful say in who serves on the board.  For evidence of the problem, ask yourself in what world does it make sense for the chief executive of a company (i.e., employee #1) to also serve on the board of directors - and as the chairman of that board, no less?  This is a classic case of the fox guarding the hen house, and yet this is the precisely how over two-thirds of the companies that make up the S&P 500 are governed. Given the fact that union pension funds make up some of the biggest shareholders in the U.S. (as well as that 70% of all U.S. stock is held in a tax-deferred retirement plan of one sort or another, indicating that U.S. companies are owned by the labor that powers them), it's absolutely dumbfounding to me that corporate governance reform doesn't rank on the Liberal agenda. It's not uncommon to hear Liberals talking about corporations in an adversarial sort of way; I have a big beef with this view that I'll have to save for another rant, so suffice it to say that this is a seriously outmoded perspective that should be replaced by seizing the mantle of reducing the principal-agent conflicts present in corporate management.

Now, make it so!

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Doom loop blues

It's damn depressing to see partisans on both sides use Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech to point fingers (sample right here. sample left here.) What does it say about the content of the "debate" that they both can interpret the same words to mean that the other side is in the wrong? 


Let's face it, both liberals and conservatives could benefit from some soul searching about how the events of the last couple of decades have exposed serious flaws in their ideologies. Or, as Bo Diddley put it, before you accuse me, take a look at yourself.  Until that happens, all this sound and fury is serving no purpose but to accelerate the doom loop.


Liberals: the post-WWII conditions on which much of your ideology is based are not likely to be repeated in the future.   Conservatives: the 30-year experiment in economic elitism has failed.  Talk among yourselves.